Tools from China machine tool industry association branch of statistics, 2008 years ago in the third quarter domestic tool industry maintained a steady and rapid growth, from the fourth quarter began to decline, especially in November 2008 to decline significantly. But look from throughout the year, branch of statistical tool industry sales gross income is 22.25 billion yuan, compared with last year, the growth rate is still 27.2%. Profit of 1.857 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1%. The number and the national bureau of statistics provided by the tool enterprises above designated size, the cutting tool sales gross income totaled 45.84 billion yuan, up by 25.6%; Measuring tool sales gross income 8.08 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5%, profits of 2.521 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3% compared to the data, the trend is consistent.

Tool industry suffered from shock wave 3 times

Now it seems that the international financial turmoil on the impact of the real economy in our country, the more serious than originally expected. Tool industry, the first wave of shock reflected from zhejiang possessing tools on the market first, inferior low cutting tool sales dropped substantially, the range of 30% ~ 30%. These cheap tool main supply low-grade mechanical and electronic products manufacturers, with little effects on the overall situation of the domestic tool industry.

The second wave hit the export tool manufacturers. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2008, orders fell 50%. But in the first three quarters of orders, abundant, so tools export still has a significant growth in 2008. Branch of statistical tool export growth of 26.7% (in dollar terms, the same below. In yuan rose just 15%), measuring tool export growth of 9.5%. Looking ahead to 2009, estimates because of the reduced orders, exports will have a significant down tools.

Tool industry bear the third wave of shock, is the most serious impact. Basically since November 2008, the influence of our country has large mainstream tool enterprise, the sudden sales greatly landslide, the personage inside course of study to this phenomenon is described as "diving" fall. Decline reached 40% ~ 50%. This story, beyond the original estimates.

Specific research from Shanghai, zhejiang and other regions, the branch of judgment is, from the perspective of the use of impossible suddenly a sharp drop in demand, after all manufacturing enterprises is still in operation, the equipment within China's entire manufacturing and there are no sharp diving, show all the intermediate links, including sales system, middlemen, and end users in macroeconomic development prospect in doubt, everybody is watching. Then began to eat inventory, suspension of stock. We also through some middlemen, affiliate investigation confirmed that they do indeed reduce or stop the replenish onr's stock, some of the end user is also trying to reduce stock in order to reduce inventory. According to these conditions, tool branch secretariat and the main tool for enterprises through communication, exchange of views. Everybody is the consensus of opinion is, the international financial crisis impact on China's real economy is very serious, need to be taken seriously. But some short-term sales data, including reasons on the middlemen and end users, they are by lowering inventory to maintain operation. Actual demand drop, cannot suddenly fell 40% ~ 50%. We believed that, as countries a series of economic stimulus policy implementation, and business confidence returns, domestic demand should have a stabilized recovery process. This estimate, this year already under way. Tool branch, according to monthly statistics bulletin in January 2009, 35 main tool enterprise, the existing four sales over the same period last year, the overall sales situation is slightly better than the end of last year, in January sales fell 36.7% year on year, including factors during the Spring Festival. Since February this year, most companies orders and sales have reached 70% ~ 80% this time of year. Most companies think, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy, has begun to bear fruit.

But, look from the overall development trend in 2009, has no more than during the first half of last year. In the second half of the year even faster recovery, it is hard to achieve greater growth than last year. Majority view is that sales in general and flat in 2008.

Continued growth remains strong

Overall economy in our country is still in the rising stage, especially from the overall development trend of manufacturing industry in our country, to continue growth remains strong, the demand for the cutting tool, especially the demand of modern efficient tool, will also increase. Become the world's largest tools market in China, will be just around the corner.

Such as aerospace, domestic large aircraft project has been put into practice, some new processing requirements through the efficient tool to solve, such as large aircraft components have a large number of using modern synthetic material, very light is very wear-resisting, need more durable diamond tool cutting tool for processing, which has good business opportunities. But the tools enterprises should actively adjust the product structure, developing new efficient tools, to meet this need.

New wind power industry, for example, is to strength to accelerate the development of wind power equipment of variable speed system, such as the gear processing requires a lot of efficient cutting tools, it is also a very big market.

Mold industry, for example, although the mid-range mold, such as toy mould, electronics mould, plastic mould, such as a sharp atrophy, mold, but the big cover element as car to speed up the development of new varieties, demand is very big still, need high speed and efficient tool to advanced processing, this is the new growth point.

International peers in the financial crisis also face similar challenges and opportunities. The world's largest multinational tool group Sandvik Tooling, after several years of rapid growth, also met with winter in 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2008 orders fell by 18%, a 12% drop in sales, profits fell by 47%. Sandvik company said that they will be more committed to seek low cost, quick effect, obvious effect on improving competitiveness of means and methods. They think, tools to see the demand and trend of manufacturing enterprises, to further production field, the existing process of bottleneck, positive for manufacturing ideas, put forward by using modern, efficient, improve efficiency, reduce cost of complete set of proposals. To find a way out in the new situation, improve the competitiveness of manufacturing industry, also the development of the enterprise itself to expand space for the tool

To deal with the policy and measures

For the tool industry in our country, to the current grave challenges into opportunities for development, the key is to earnestly implement structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.

China's tool industry development present situation, can say is a miniature of the macroeconomic. On the one hand, the reform and opening up 30 years, has obtained huge development. But it should be noted that the current in the dominant tool industry, is still the extensive development of resource consumption; High speed steel consumption in China, 2007, 80000 tons of hard alloy consumption of 16500 tons, the two kinds of tool materials, are accounted for 40% of world consumption. However, sales of cutting tool in our country, but only account for 15% of the global total. This contrast, fully reflect the development of the industry and extensive degree and the serious waste of resources.

HSS cutting tools, for example, in 2007 China produced 4 billion pieces, this tool in the global industry is astronomical. 50 times that of the Japanese industrial production of producing 2007 high speed steel cutting tools in Japan (2007). For the most part tool (80% of the total) as a home kit export. Cost high speed steel 65000 tons (estimates there are 20000 ~ 30000 tons and inferior low alloy high speed steel) swap of $850 million, material price is much cheaper than the international market. Completely by the state tax subsidies.

Another example, cemented carbide cutting tools is the main force of our country is developing a modern, efficient cutting tool. In recent years at an average annual rate of more than 30% growth. Some high-end products meet the requirements of the development of modern manufacturing, and development momentum is good. But the overall level is still not high. Such as the 2007 annual production of 16500 tons of cemented carbide in our country, there are 4500 tons used in cutting tools, in quantity and Japan. But make the value of the cutting tool, Japan reached $2.5 billion, only $800 million in China, less than a third of Japan. This suggests that the overall level of domestic carbide efficient cutter and abroad still has a gap. So, have to rely on a large number of imports to solve manufacturing demand, imports totaled $2007 in 750 million. Mainly in China's foreign sales, annual growth of 30%, the average annual growth of more than domestic tools.

China's tool industry waste of resources, low expansion, the present situation of the vulgar management, is still very serious. In tackling the international financial crisis measures can adhere to the principle of structural adjustment, will be the biggest challenge to the government and enterprises.

(source: China's machine tool industry association tool branch)